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As quarter one of 2019 ends, one thing seems certain: the current economic expansion will not last forever; the scales will eventually tip in the direction of contraction. Apprehensions about the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) decision to not raise interest rate coupled with global slowdowns in Europe and China are factors being weighed against the possibility of a recession in the next year. This quarterly economic update examines some key indicators for both the nation and Orlando to watch in the coming months.

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Will our ability to plan and make decisions outpace the growth we will experience between now and 2030? That was the theme of the 2019 Orange County Regional Economic Summit, held on March 29 at the Orange County Convention Center.

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At the Orlando Economic Partnership, we aren’t just planning for 2019 – we’re looking at the decade ahead and where we’ll be by 2030. It may seem like a far-off date. But, consider this: the high school graduating class of 2030 is already in the first grade. 

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Orlando is adding 1,000 new residents a week. In fact, the larger seven-county region has been adding that many people a week for the last 60 years. Pause for a second and do the math. People aren’t just looking to visit Orlando’s world class attractions, they’re putting down roots and taking advantage of all the region has to offer. This may come as no surprise to those who see the construction and investment boom currently happening in Orlando. What might be surprising, however, is just how significant this growth is compared to other major metros across America, as well as how Orlando’s demographics differ from other Florida cities. Turns out, Orlando is in a category all its own when it comes to growth and in-migration; the dynamics of which are explored below.

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Threats of increased U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods last month fueled anxiety over a trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Analysis by the Orlando Economic Partnership research team sheds light on the likely consequences of proposed economic sanctions. Due to the Orlando economy’s lack of reliance on exports, any direct decreases in economic activity caused by potential Chinese tariffs would be minimal. More substantial threats to the Orlando region, specifically to tourism and the construction boom, come from U.S. imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.  

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America may be getting a pay raise. New data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in February suggest that Americans are at last seeing their wages rise at a healthier rate since the 2008 recession. Posting 2.9 percent year-over-year wage growth in January 2017, the BLS Employment Situation report painted a picture of a sturdy job market with wage gains, record low unemployment rates, and minimal changes to the number of people working part time for economic reasons.

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